BASF
ChemicalsGermanyDemo Report

Overview

Climate risk summary for BASF — Chemicals, Germany

BASF is the world's largest chemical company, headquartered in Ludwigshafen, Germany. With operations spanning agriculture, materials, chemicals, and surface technologies, BASF faces significant transition risks from carbon pricing and decarbonization of chemical processes, as well as physical climate risks across its global manufacturing footprint.

Emissions

Greenhouse gas emissions across all scopes — current year and reduction trajectory

Scope 1 Emissions
15M
tCO₂e
13.6% of total
Scope 2 Emissions
2M
tCO₂e
2.2% of total
Scope 3 Emissions
94M
tCO₂e
84.2% of total
WACI — Scope 1
214.2
tCO₂e / $M revenue
WACI — Scope 1 & 2
248.8
tCO₂e / $M revenue
WACI — All Scopes
1578.6
tCO₂e / $M revenue
Baseline Trajectory
Emissions without active decarbonisation targets (MtCO₂e)
Targets-Based Trajectory
Emissions assuming company reduction targets are met (MtCO₂e)
How are these emissions estimated?

Emissions are modelled using machine learning models trained on reported emissions from 9,000+ public companies. Non-linear patterns are encoded into estimates using financial metrics as inputs.

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Climate Risk

Financial value at risk from transition and physical climate exposures

Climate Scenario
Assumptions used for this analysis
A range of financial assumptions can affect the climate transition risk analysis where carbon pricing is applied throughout the pro forma.
EV/EBITDA: 6.18xP/E Ratio: 13.00xCOGS (% of Revenue): 76.1%SG&A (% of Revenue): 6.0%Accounts Receivable (% of Revenue): 10.0%Accounts Payable (% of Revenue): 8.0%Revenue Growth Rate: 4.0%CapEx (% of Revenue): 4.0%Interest Rate: 3.0%Tax Rate: 65.2%Dividend Payout Ratio: 65.0%Max Cash (% of Revenue): 10Debt Adjustment Toggle (1=On, 0=Off): 1FCF Threshold ($M): $0MWACC (Discount Rate): 8.0%
Total Climate Value at Risk
Scenario: NGFS Below 2°C · USD millions · $0 = no risk, more negative = greater exposure

Transition Risk

Financial impact of carbon pricing, regulatory costs, and market transition on company value

2025 Annual Carbon Cost
$484M
0.7% of revenue
NPV Total Carbon Exposure
$8.8B
Net present value of all future carbon costs
Enterprise Value Erosion
-11.9%
-$7.8B on current EV
Carbon Cost Trajectory
Scenario: NGFS Below 2°C · USD millions
EBITDA Impact of Carbon Pricing
Baseline vs Targets based EBITDA impact · USD millions
Pro Forma Financials from carbon budget and price
Scenario: NGFS Below 2°C
USD millions
Metric2025 Baseline2025 w/ Targets2030 Baseline2030 w/ Targets2050 Baseline2050 w/ Targets
Income Statement
EBITDA-$484.4M-$484.4M-$1.3B-$970.4M-$10.9B$0.0M
EBITDA Margin-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.1%0.0%
EBIT-$484.4M-$484.4M-$1.3B-$970.4M-$10.9B$0.0M
Net Income-$168.8M-$168.8M-$442.6M-$338.1M-$3.8B$0.0M
Net Income Margin-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%0.0%
Carbon Cost
Carbon Cost$484.4M$484.4M$1.3B$970.4M$10.9B$0.0M
Carbon Cost % Revenue0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
Carbon Cost Cash Outflow$484.4M$484.4M$1.3B$970.4M$10.9B$0.0M
NPV Carbon Costs$30.1B$8.8B
Balance Sheet & Credit
Total Assets$0.0M$0.0M-$578.6M-$484.5M-$12.8B-$2.0B
Total Debt$0.0M$0.0M$0.0M$0.0M$0.0M$0.0M
Total Equity$0.0M$0.0M-$578.6M-$484.5M-$12.8B-$2.0B
Retained Earnings$0.0M$0.0M-$578.6M-$484.5M-$12.8B-$2.0B
Debt / EBITDA0.100.100.180.130.430.00
Interest Coverage-0.59-0.59-1.55-1.18-13.240.00
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow (Levered)-$168.8M-$168.8M-$442.6M-$338.1M-$3.8B$0.0M
Ending Cash Position$0.0M$0.0M-$578.6M-$484.5M-$12.8B-$2.0B
Valuation
Debt/EBITDA ratio0.100.100.180.130.430.00
EV/EBITDA Valuation-$2.6B-$2.6B-$5.7B-$4.4B-$22.2B$0.0M
P/E Valuation-$4.5B-$4.5B-$8.6B-$6.6B-$26.3B$0.0M
EV Erosion (DCF)-$0.4M-$0.1M
Blended TVaR-$3.6B-$3.6B-$7.2B-$5.5B-$24.3B$0.0M

Market Based Physical Risk

Enterprise value at risk from acute and chronic physical climate hazards

Market-Based Physical Value at Risk (PVaR)
Enterprise value at risk from acute and chronic physical hazards · company-level · Baseline scenario
2025 Total PVaR
$17M
NGFS Below 2°C
2030 Total PVaR
$23M
NGFS Below 2°C
2050 Total PVaR
$86M
NGFS Below 2°C
Total PVaR Trajectory
By scenario · USD millions

Asset Climate Hazard Analysis

Climate hazard exposure across 7 assets — average annual loss by peril and scenario

Current AAL (Baseline 1980)
$6.54M
RCP 4.5 AAL (2050)
$9.59M
RCP 8.5 AAL (2050)
$11M
Portfolio AAL Composition
Baseline + 2050 RCP 8.5 delta by hazard · USD / yr
BaselineRCP 8.5 Δ
Top Assets by Climate Δ AAL
2050 RCP 8.5 increase vs. baseline · USD / yr · top 5
AAL by Hazard Type
Portfolio total · click a pin to explore an asset
Asset value: $14B
How is Average Annual Loss (AAL) calculated?

AAL represents the expected financial loss from a physical hazard in any given year, averaged across all possible event intensities and their probabilities. It is derived from hazard models that combine historical climate data with forward-looking scenario projections, applied to each asset's location, construction type, and replacement value. Baseline AAL reflects current climate conditions; Scenario AAL incorporates projected shifts in hazard frequency and severity under each warming pathway.

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Asset Exposure Detail
AssetValueWildfire AALCyclone AALCoastal Flood AALRiver Flood AAL
BaselineRCP 4.5RCP 8.5BaselineRCP 4.5RCP 8.5BaselineRCP 4.5RCP 8.5BaselineRCP 4.5RCP 8.5
NAFTA Region Olefins Complex Cogen Fac$85M$97K$119K$121K$166K$1325K$1847K$3453K$1807K$1719K$5K
BASF Freeport Works$95M$60K$103K$91K$1257K$3641K$4411K$11K$6K$11K
Ludwigshafen$13B$0K$0K$838K$1048K$823K
Geismar$85M$181K$241K$253K$83K$747K$911K$127K$203K$171K
Ludwigshafen Süd power station$320M$0K$0K$182K$243K$147K
Ludwigshafen Mitte power station$405M$0K$0K$82K$106K$96K
Schwarzheide power station$135M$0K$5K$0K$0K$0K