Climate risk summary for Duke Energy — Electric Utilities, United States
Duke Energy is one of the largest electric power holding companies in the United States, serving approximately 8 million customers across the Carolinas, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky. As a major utility operator, Duke Energy faces significant transition risks from regulatory changes and the shift away from coal generation, as well as physical climate risks to its extensive grid and generation infrastructure.
Greenhouse gas emissions across all scopes — current year and reduction trajectory
Emissions are modelled using machine learning models trained on reported emissions from 9,000+ public companies. Non-linear patterns are encoded into estimates using financial metrics as inputs.
Find out more here →Financial value at risk from transition and physical climate exposures
Financial impact of carbon pricing, regulatory costs, and market transition on company value
| Metric | 2025 Baseline | 2025 w/ Targets | 2030 Baseline | 2030 w/ Targets | 2050 Baseline | 2050 w/ Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | ||||||
| EBITDA | -$56.8M | -$56.8M | -$393.9M | -$163.2M | -$9.2B | $0.0M |
| EBITDA Margin | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| EBIT | -$56.8M | -$56.8M | -$393.9M | -$163.2M | -$9.2B | $0.0M |
| Net Income | -$50.4M | -$50.4M | -$349.6M | -$144.8M | -$8.2B | $0.0M |
| Net Income Margin | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carbon Cost | ||||||
| Carbon Cost | $56.8M | $56.8M | $393.9M | $163.2M | $9.2B | $0.0M |
| Carbon Cost % Revenue | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carbon Cost Cash Outflow | $56.8M | $56.8M | $393.9M | $163.2M | $9.2B | $0.0M |
| NPV Carbon Costs | $19.8B | $2.2B | — | — | — | — |
| Balance Sheet & Credit | ||||||
| Total Assets | $0.0M | $0.0M | -$358.6M | -$189.3M | -$24.7B | -$1.5B |
| Total Debt | $0.0M | $0.0M | $0.0M | $0.0M | $0.0M | $0.0M |
| Total Equity | $0.0M | $0.0M | -$358.6M | -$189.3M | -$24.7B | -$1.5B |
| Retained Earnings | $0.0M | $0.0M | -$358.6M | -$189.3M | -$24.7B | -$1.5B |
| Debt / EBITDA | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.91 | 0.00 |
| Interest Coverage | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.11 | -0.04 | -2.53 | 0.00 |
| Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow (Levered) | -$50.4M | -$50.4M | -$349.6M | -$144.8M | -$8.2B | $0.0M |
| Ending Cash Position | $0.0M | $0.0M | -$358.6M | -$189.3M | -$24.7B | -$1.5B |
| Valuation | ||||||
| Debt/EBITDA ratio | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.91 | 0.00 |
| EV/EBITDA Valuation | -$731.9M | -$731.9M | -$4.2B | -$1.7B | -$63.3B | $0.0M |
| P/E Valuation | -$3.0B | -$3.0B | -$11.0B | -$4.5B | -$89.0B | $0.0M |
| EV Erosion (DCF) | -$0.2M | -$0.0M | — | — | — | — |
| Blended TVaR | -$1.8B | -$1.8B | -$7.6B | -$3.1B | -$76.1B | $0.0M |
Enterprise value at risk from acute and chronic physical climate hazards
Climate hazard exposure across 89 assets — average annual loss by peril and scenario
AAL represents the expected financial loss from a physical hazard in any given year, averaged across all possible event intensities and their probabilities. It is derived from hazard models that combine historical climate data with forward-looking scenario projections, applied to each asset's location, construction type, and replacement value. Baseline AAL reflects current climate conditions; Scenario AAL incorporates projected shifts in hazard frequency and severity under each warming pathway.
Find out more here →| Asset | Value | Wildfire AAL | Cyclone AAL | Coastal Flood AAL | River Flood AAL | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | Baseline | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | Baseline | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | Baseline | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | ||
| P L Bartow | $1.5B | $1K | $1K | $1K | $36707K | $95940K | $98892K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anclote | $1.1B | $23K | $33K | $35K | $26649K | $72280K | $74504K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| LV Sutton Combined Cycle and Steam | $851M | $1036K | $1030K | $1035K | $21537K | $55044K | $56100K | — | — | — | $4K | $7K | $46K |
| DeBary | $748M | $1221K | $1962K | $2256K | $11142K | $28709K | $32038K | — | — | — | $192K | $471K | $57K |
| Hines Energy Complex | $2.3B | $208K | $341K | $373K | $5784K | $23548K | $26353K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bayboro | $227M | $0K | $1K | $1K | $5678K | $14755K | $15209K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Intercession City | $1.2B | $360K | $632K | $693K | $4811K | $21042K | $22097K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crystal River | $400M | $370K | $520K | $536K | $3831K | $15288K | $16388K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PLANICIE BANDERITA | $472M | $2952K | $4561K | $4448K | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| East Bend | $772M | — | — | $1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | $2736K | $3883K | $2324K |
| Osprey Energy Center Power Plant | $644M | $222K | $365K | $402K | $1584K | $6036K | $6439K | — | — | — | — | $5K | — |
| Sherwood H Smith Jr Energy Complex | $2.2B | $1423K | $1338K | $1330K | $7K | $39K | $45K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Woodsdale | $572M | — | — | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | $1012K | $1019K | $1101K |
| PEUCHEN | $85M | $784K | $1257K | $1154K | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiger Bay | $278M | $26K | $42K | $46K | $710K | $2889K | $3233K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| MAMPIL | $55M | $571K | $861K | $813K | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Buck | $698M | $0K | $0K | $0K | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | $412K | $468K | $760K |
| Lake Placid Solar Power Plant | $45M | $0K | $0K | $0K | $404K | $1342K | $1455K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Trenton Solar Power Plant | $75M | $144K | $161K | $166K | $211K | $827K | $1046K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Suwannee River | $198M | $252K | $287K | $334K | $55K | $278K | $288K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| HF Lee and Wayne County power complex | $2.0B | $61K | $52K | $52K | $108K | $960K | $622K | — | — | — | $126K | $291K | $360K |
| Camp Lejeune Solar | $13M | $13K | $11K | $11K | $218K | $581K | $592K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| University of Florida | $54M | $119K | $181K | $212K | $92K | $363K | $479K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bad Creek | $2.2B | $0K | — | $1K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | $177K | — | — |
| Wateree Hydro | $90M | $46K | $9K | $9K | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | $83K | $12K | $72K |
| W H Weatherspoon | $163M | $76K | $66K | $65K | $48K | $333K | $341K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hamilton Solar Power Plant | $75M | $89K | $100K | $118K | $13K | $64K | $71K | — | — | — | $21K | $25K | $27K |
| Mill Creek (SC) | $799M | $121K | $37K | $31K | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Darlington County | $316M | $111K | $84K | $81K | $2K | $6K | $9K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jocassee | $1.4B | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | $109K | — | — |
| Markland | $69M | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | $102K | $156K | $126K |
| Tillery | $84M | $9K | $8K | $8K | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | $75K | $101K | $249K |
| Asheville | $1.0B | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | $82K | — | — |
| Cedar Creek | $45M | $28K | $7K | $6K | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | $41K | $7K | $36K |
| James E. Rogers Energy Complex | $1.5B | $64K | $19K | $15K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mocksville Solar | $15M | $0K | $0K | $0K | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | $53K | $31K | $51K |
| Ocotillo Windpower | $59M | $42K | $77K | $70K | — | — | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dan River | $698M | — | — | — | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | $42K | $113K | $572K |
| Warsaw Farm | $65M | $24K | $22K | $22K | $16K | $173K | $103K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Blewett | $70M | $37K | $35K | $34K | $0K | $1K | $1K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Osceola Solar Facility | $4.00M | $0K | $0K | $0K | $34K | $126K | $138K | — | — | — | $0K | $0K | $0K |
| 99 Islands | $12M | $4K | $1K | $1K | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | $29K | $20K | $61K |
| W S Lee | $955M | $32K | $11K | $8K | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dearborn | $45M | $28K | $7K | $6K | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | $4K | $7K | $12K |
| Fishing Creek | $42M | $23K | $6K | $5K | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | $3K | $7K | $11K |
| Perry Solar Facility | $5.00M | $10K | $11K | $13K | $16K | $64K | $72K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lincoln Combustion | $2.3B | $21K | $5K | $5K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DD Fayetteville Solar NC LLC | $23M | $11K | $10K | $10K | $1K | $11K | $9K | — | — | — | $1K | $5K | $6K |
| Great Falls (SC) | $12M | $7K | $2K | $2K | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | $1K | $2K | $3K |
| Wylie | $60M | $8K | $2K | $2K | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Monroe Solar Facility | $55M | $7K | $2K | $1K | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marshall (NC) | $1.5B | $2K | $1K | $1K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cowans Ford | $350M | $2K | $1K | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oxford Dam | $36M | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | $2K | $5K | $7K |
| Camp Atterbury Microgrid Hybrid | $7.00M | — | $1K | $1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | $1K | $6K | $4K |
| Rhodhiss | $26M | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | $1K | $3K | $5K |
| Tippecanoe Solar Power Plant | $2.00M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | $1K | $1K | $1K |
| Lookout Shoals | $26M | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | $1K | $3K | $5K |
| Elm City Solar Facility | $40M | $0K | $0K | $0K | $1K | $4K | $4K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mountain Island | $60M | $1K | $0K | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Campbell Hill Windpower | $99M | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Happy Jack Windpower Project | $29M | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keowee | $158M | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Notrees Windpower Hybrid | $188M | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Duke Energy CHP at Clemson University | $13M | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DE Solar 10240 Old Dowd Rd | $2.00M | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Roxboro | $1.6B | — | — | — | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bridgewater | $28M | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mayo | $763M | — | — | — | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DE Solar 1725 Drywall Dr | $1.00M | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Belews Creek | $1.6B | — | — | — | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Woodleaf Solar Facility | $6.00M | $0K | $0K | $0K | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DE Solar 657 Brigham Rd | $1.00M | — | — | — | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CaÑon del Pato | $247M | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bear Creek Dam | $9.00M | — | — | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cedar Cliff | $6.00M | — | — | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crane Solar Facility | $17M | — | $1K | $1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crittenden Solar Facility | $3.00M | — | — | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marshall Dam | $5.00M | — | — | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nantahala | $43M | — | — | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| North Allegheny Windpower Project | $70M | — | — | — | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Queens Creek | $1.00M | — | — | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tennessee Creek | $11M | — | — | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thorpe | $22M | — | — | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tuckasegee | $3.00M | — | — | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walter C Beckjord | $4.00M | — | — | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walters | $108M | — | — | $0K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walton 1 Solar Facility | $2.00M | — | — | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walton 2 Solar Facility | $2.00M | — | — | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |