Duke Energy
Electric UtilitiesUnited StatesDemo Report

Overview

Climate risk summary for Duke Energy — Electric Utilities, United States

Duke Energy is one of the largest electric power holding companies in the United States, serving approximately 8 million customers across the Carolinas, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky. As a major utility operator, Duke Energy faces significant transition risks from regulatory changes and the shift away from coal generation, as well as physical climate risks to its extensive grid and generation infrastructure.

Emissions

Greenhouse gas emissions across all scopes — current year and reduction trajectory

Scope 1 Emissions
79M
tCO₂e
79.9% of total
Scope 2 Emissions
254k
tCO₂e
0.3% of total
Scope 3 Emissions
20M
tCO₂e
19.9% of total
WACI — Scope 1
2607.2
tCO₂e / $M revenue
WACI — Scope 1 & 2
2615.6
tCO₂e / $M revenue
WACI — All Scopes
3264.8
tCO₂e / $M revenue
Baseline Trajectory
Emissions without active decarbonisation targets (MtCO₂e)
Targets-Based Trajectory
Emissions assuming company reduction targets are met (MtCO₂e)
How are these emissions estimated?

Emissions are modelled using machine learning models trained on reported emissions from 9,000+ public companies. Non-linear patterns are encoded into estimates using financial metrics as inputs.

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Climate Risk

Financial value at risk from transition and physical climate exposures

Climate Scenario
Assumptions used for this analysis
A range of financial assumptions can affect the climate transition risk analysis where carbon pricing is applied throughout the pro forma.
EV/EBITDA: 6.18xP/E Ratio: 13.00xCOGS (% of Revenue): 53.0%SG&A (% of Revenue): 6.0%Accounts Receivable (% of Revenue): 10.0%Accounts Payable (% of Revenue): 8.0%Revenue Growth Rate: 4.0%CapEx (% of Revenue): 4.0%Interest Rate: 4.0%Tax Rate: 11.2%Dividend Payout Ratio: 65.0%Max Cash (% of Revenue): 10Debt Adjustment Toggle (1=On, 0=Off): 1FCF Threshold ($M): $0MWACC (Discount Rate): 8.0%
Total Climate Value at Risk
Scenario: NGFS Below 2°C · USD millions · $0 = no risk, more negative = greater exposure

Transition Risk

Financial impact of carbon pricing, regulatory costs, and market transition on company value

2025 Annual Carbon Cost
$57M
0.2% of revenue
NPV Total Carbon Exposure
$2.2B
Net present value of all future carbon costs
Enterprise Value Erosion
-2.7%
-$4.5B on current EV
Carbon Cost Trajectory
Scenario: NGFS Below 2°C · USD millions
EBITDA Impact of Carbon Pricing
Baseline vs Targets based EBITDA impact · USD millions
Pro Forma Financials from carbon budget and price
Scenario: NGFS Below 2°C
USD millions
Metric2025 Baseline2025 w/ Targets2030 Baseline2030 w/ Targets2050 Baseline2050 w/ Targets
Income Statement
EBITDA-$56.8M-$56.8M-$393.9M-$163.2M-$9.2B$0.0M
EBITDA Margin-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.1%0.0%
EBIT-$56.8M-$56.8M-$393.9M-$163.2M-$9.2B$0.0M
Net Income-$50.4M-$50.4M-$349.6M-$144.8M-$8.2B$0.0M
Net Income Margin-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.1%0.0%
Carbon Cost
Carbon Cost$56.8M$56.8M$393.9M$163.2M$9.2B$0.0M
Carbon Cost % Revenue0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
Carbon Cost Cash Outflow$56.8M$56.8M$393.9M$163.2M$9.2B$0.0M
NPV Carbon Costs$19.8B$2.2B
Balance Sheet & Credit
Total Assets$0.0M$0.0M-$358.6M-$189.3M-$24.7B-$1.5B
Total Debt$0.0M$0.0M$0.0M$0.0M$0.0M$0.0M
Total Equity$0.0M$0.0M-$358.6M-$189.3M-$24.7B-$1.5B
Retained Earnings$0.0M$0.0M-$358.6M-$189.3M-$24.7B-$1.5B
Debt / EBITDA0.030.030.140.060.910.00
Interest Coverage-0.02-0.02-0.11-0.04-2.530.00
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow (Levered)-$50.4M-$50.4M-$349.6M-$144.8M-$8.2B$0.0M
Ending Cash Position$0.0M$0.0M-$358.6M-$189.3M-$24.7B-$1.5B
Valuation
Debt/EBITDA ratio0.030.030.140.060.910.00
EV/EBITDA Valuation-$731.9M-$731.9M-$4.2B-$1.7B-$63.3B$0.0M
P/E Valuation-$3.0B-$3.0B-$11.0B-$4.5B-$89.0B$0.0M
EV Erosion (DCF)-$0.2M-$0.0M
Blended TVaR-$1.8B-$1.8B-$7.6B-$3.1B-$76.1B$0.0M

Market Based Physical Risk

Enterprise value at risk from acute and chronic physical climate hazards

Market-Based Physical Value at Risk (PVaR)
Enterprise value at risk from acute and chronic physical hazards · company-level · Baseline scenario
2025 Total PVaR
$138M
NGFS Below 2°C
2030 Total PVaR
$211M
NGFS Below 2°C
2050 Total PVaR
$2.0B
NGFS Below 2°C
Total PVaR Trajectory
By scenario · USD millions

Asset Climate Hazard Analysis

Climate hazard exposure across 89 assets — average annual loss by peril and scenario

Current AAL (Baseline 1980)
$136M
RCP 4.5 AAL (2050)
$362M
RCP 8.5 AAL (2050)
$377M
Portfolio AAL Composition
Baseline + 2050 RCP 8.5 delta by hazard · USD / yr
BaselineRCP 8.5 Δ
Top Assets by Climate Δ AAL
2050 RCP 8.5 increase vs. baseline · USD / yr · top 5
AAL by Hazard Type
Portfolio total · click a pin to explore an asset
Asset value: $36B
How is Average Annual Loss (AAL) calculated?

AAL represents the expected financial loss from a physical hazard in any given year, averaged across all possible event intensities and their probabilities. It is derived from hazard models that combine historical climate data with forward-looking scenario projections, applied to each asset's location, construction type, and replacement value. Baseline AAL reflects current climate conditions; Scenario AAL incorporates projected shifts in hazard frequency and severity under each warming pathway.

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Asset Exposure Detail
AssetValueWildfire AALCyclone AALCoastal Flood AALRiver Flood AAL
BaselineRCP 4.5RCP 8.5BaselineRCP 4.5RCP 8.5BaselineRCP 4.5RCP 8.5BaselineRCP 4.5RCP 8.5
P L Bartow$1.5B$1K$1K$1K$36707K$95940K$98892K
Anclote$1.1B$23K$33K$35K$26649K$72280K$74504K
LV Sutton Combined Cycle and Steam$851M$1036K$1030K$1035K$21537K$55044K$56100K$4K$7K$46K
DeBary$748M$1221K$1962K$2256K$11142K$28709K$32038K$192K$471K$57K
Hines Energy Complex$2.3B$208K$341K$373K$5784K$23548K$26353K
Bayboro$227M$0K$1K$1K$5678K$14755K$15209K
Intercession City$1.2B$360K$632K$693K$4811K$21042K$22097K
Crystal River$400M$370K$520K$536K$3831K$15288K$16388K
PLANICIE BANDERITA$472M$2952K$4561K$4448K
East Bend$772M$1K$2736K$3883K$2324K
Osprey Energy Center Power Plant$644M$222K$365K$402K$1584K$6036K$6439K$5K
Sherwood H Smith Jr Energy Complex$2.2B$1423K$1338K$1330K$7K$39K$45K
Woodsdale$572M$0K$1012K$1019K$1101K
PEUCHEN$85M$784K$1257K$1154K
Tiger Bay$278M$26K$42K$46K$710K$2889K$3233K
MAMPIL$55M$571K$861K$813K
Buck$698M$0K$0K$0K$0K$0K$0K$412K$468K$760K
Lake Placid Solar Power Plant$45M$0K$0K$0K$404K$1342K$1455K
Trenton Solar Power Plant$75M$144K$161K$166K$211K$827K$1046K
Suwannee River$198M$252K$287K$334K$55K$278K$288K
HF Lee and Wayne County power complex$2.0B$61K$52K$52K$108K$960K$622K$126K$291K$360K
Camp Lejeune Solar$13M$13K$11K$11K$218K$581K$592K
University of Florida$54M$119K$181K$212K$92K$363K$479K
Bad Creek$2.2B$0K$1K$0K$0K$177K
Wateree Hydro$90M$46K$9K$9K$0K$0K$0K$83K$12K$72K
W H Weatherspoon$163M$76K$66K$65K$48K$333K$341K
Hamilton Solar Power Plant$75M$89K$100K$118K$13K$64K$71K$21K$25K$27K
Mill Creek (SC)$799M$121K$37K$31K$0K$0K$0K
Darlington County$316M$111K$84K$81K$2K$6K$9K
Jocassee$1.4B$0K$0K$0K$0K$0K$109K
Markland$69M$0K$0K$102K$156K$126K
Tillery$84M$9K$8K$8K$0K$0K$0K$75K$101K$249K
Asheville$1.0B$0K$0K$0K$0K$0K$82K
Cedar Creek$45M$28K$7K$6K$0K$0K$0K$41K$7K$36K
James E. Rogers Energy Complex$1.5B$64K$19K$15K$0K$0K
Mocksville Solar$15M$0K$0K$0K$0K$0K$0K$53K$31K$51K
Ocotillo Windpower$59M$42K$77K$70K$0K
Dan River$698M$0K$0K$42K$113K$572K
Warsaw Farm$65M$24K$22K$22K$16K$173K$103K
Blewett$70M$37K$35K$34K$0K$1K$1K
Osceola Solar Facility$4.00M$0K$0K$0K$34K$126K$138K$0K$0K$0K
99 Islands$12M$4K$1K$1K$0K$0K$0K$29K$20K$61K
W S Lee$955M$32K$11K$8K$0K$0K$0K
Dearborn$45M$28K$7K$6K$0K$0K$0K$4K$7K$12K
Fishing Creek$42M$23K$6K$5K$0K$0K$0K$3K$7K$11K
Perry Solar Facility$5.00M$10K$11K$13K$16K$64K$72K
Lincoln Combustion$2.3B$21K$5K$5K$0K$0K
DD Fayetteville Solar NC LLC$23M$11K$10K$10K$1K$11K$9K$1K$5K$6K
Great Falls (SC)$12M$7K$2K$2K$0K$0K$0K$1K$2K$3K
Wylie$60M$8K$2K$2K$0K$0K$0K
Monroe Solar Facility$55M$7K$2K$1K$0K$0K$0K
Marshall (NC)$1.5B$2K$1K$1K$0K$0K
Cowans Ford$350M$2K$1K$0K$0K$0K
Oxford Dam$36M$0K$0K$0K$0K$0K$2K$5K$7K
Camp Atterbury Microgrid Hybrid$7.00M$1K$1K$1K$6K$4K
Rhodhiss$26M$0K$0K$0K$0K$0K$1K$3K$5K
Tippecanoe Solar Power Plant$2.00M$1K$1K$1K
Lookout Shoals$26M$0K$0K$0K$0K$0K$1K$3K$5K
Elm City Solar Facility$40M$0K$0K$0K$1K$4K$4K
Mountain Island$60M$1K$0K$0K$0K$0K
Campbell Hill Windpower$99M$0K$0K$0K
Happy Jack Windpower Project$29M$0K$0K$0K
Keowee$158M$0K$0K$0K$0K$0K
Notrees Windpower Hybrid$188M$0K$0K$0K
Duke Energy CHP at Clemson University$13M$0K$0K$0K$0K$0K
DE Solar 10240 Old Dowd Rd$2.00M$0K$0K$0K$0K$0K
Roxboro$1.6B$0K$0K$0K
Bridgewater$28M$0K$0K$0K$0K$0K
Mayo$763M$0K$0K$0K
DE Solar 1725 Drywall Dr$1.00M$0K$0K$0K$0K$0K
Belews Creek$1.6B$0K$0K$0K
Woodleaf Solar Facility$6.00M$0K$0K$0K$0K$0K$0K
DE Solar 657 Brigham Rd$1.00M$0K$0K$0K
CaÑon del Pato$247M$0K$0K
Bear Creek Dam$9.00M$0K$0K$0K
Cedar Cliff$6.00M$0K$0K$0K
Crane Solar Facility$17M$1K$1K
Crittenden Solar Facility$3.00M$0K
Marshall Dam$5.00M$0K$0K$0K
Nantahala$43M$0K$0K$0K
North Allegheny Windpower Project$70M$0K$0K
Queens Creek$1.00M$0K$0K$0K
Tennessee Creek$11M$0K$0K$0K
Thorpe$22M$0K$0K$0K
Tuckasegee$3.00M$0K$0K$0K
Walter C Beckjord$4.00M$0K
Walters$108M$0K$0K$0K
Walton 1 Solar Facility$2.00M$0K
Walton 2 Solar Facility$2.00M$0K