Heidelberg
Construction MaterialsGermanyDemo Report

Overview

Climate risk summary for Heidelberg — Construction Materials, Germany

Heidelberg Materials is one of the world's largest building materials companies, producing cement, aggregates, and ready-mixed concrete. As a major cement producer, Heidelberg faces significant transition risks from carbon pricing and process emissions inherent to cement manufacturing, as well as physical climate risks to its global network of quarries and plants.

Emissions

Greenhouse gas emissions across all scopes — current year and reduction trajectory

Scope 1 Emissions
63M
tCO₂e
75.3% of total
Scope 2 Emissions
4M
tCO₂e
5.3% of total
Scope 3 Emissions
16M
tCO₂e
19.4% of total
WACI — Scope 1
2725.9
tCO₂e / $M revenue
WACI — Scope 1 & 2
2918.7
tCO₂e / $M revenue
WACI — All Scopes
3621.9
tCO₂e / $M revenue
Baseline Trajectory
Emissions without active decarbonisation targets (MtCO₂e)
Targets-Based Trajectory
Emissions assuming company reduction targets are met (MtCO₂e)
How are these emissions estimated?

Emissions are modelled using machine learning models trained on reported emissions from 9,000+ public companies. Non-linear patterns are encoded into estimates using financial metrics as inputs.

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Climate Risk

Financial value at risk from transition and physical climate exposures

Climate Scenario
Assumptions used for this analysis
A range of financial assumptions can affect the climate transition risk analysis where carbon pricing is applied throughout the pro forma.
EV/EBITDA: 5.48xP/E Ratio: 13.00xCOGS (% of Revenue): 60.0%SG&A (% of Revenue): 6.0%Accounts Receivable (% of Revenue): 10.0%Accounts Payable (% of Revenue): 8.0%Revenue Growth Rate: 4.0%CapEx (% of Revenue): 4.0%Interest Rate: 5.0%Tax Rate: 5.0%Dividend Payout Ratio: 65.0%Max Cash (% of Revenue): 10Debt Adjustment Toggle (1=On, 0=Off): 1FCF Threshold ($M): $0MWACC (Discount Rate): 8.0%
Total Climate Value at Risk
Scenario: NGFS Below 2°C · USD millions · $0 = no risk, more negative = greater exposure

Transition Risk

Financial impact of carbon pricing, regulatory costs, and market transition on company value

2025 Annual Carbon Cost
$698M
2.9% of revenue
NPV Total Carbon Exposure
$12B
Net present value of all future carbon costs
Enterprise Value Erosion
-26.0%
-$8.1B on current EV
Carbon Cost Trajectory
Scenario: NGFS Below 2°C · USD millions
EBITDA Impact of Carbon Pricing
Baseline vs Targets based EBITDA impact · USD millions
Pro Forma Financials from carbon budget and price
Scenario: NGFS Below 2°C
USD millions
Metric2025 Baseline2025 w/ Targets2030 Baseline2030 w/ Targets2050 Baseline2050 w/ Targets
Income Statement
EBITDA-$697.9M-$697.9M-$1.6B-$1.1B-$9.7B$0.0M
EBITDA Margin-0.0%-0.0%-0.1%-0.0%-0.2%0.0%
EBIT-$697.9M-$697.9M-$1.6B-$1.1B-$9.7B$0.0M
Net Income-$663.0M-$663.0M-$1.6B-$1.0B-$9.2B$0.0M
Net Income Margin-0.0%-0.0%-0.1%-0.0%-0.1%0.0%
Carbon Cost
Carbon Cost$697.9M$697.9M$1.6B$1.1B$9.7B$0.0M
Carbon Cost % Revenue0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.2%0.0%
Carbon Cost Cash Outflow$697.9M$697.9M$1.6B$1.1B$9.7B$0.0M
NPV Carbon Costs$33.4B$11.7B
Balance Sheet & Credit
Total Assets$0.0M$0.0M-$2.1B-$1.6B-$36.2B-$7.8B
Total Debt$0.0M$0.0M$0.0M$0.0M$0.0M$0.0M
Total Equity$0.0M$0.0M-$2.1B-$1.6B-$36.2B-$7.8B
Retained Earnings$0.0M$0.0M-$2.1B-$1.6B-$36.2B-$7.8B
Debt / EBITDA0.110.110.190.120.360.00
Interest Coverage-1.42-1.42-3.35-2.19-19.760.00
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow (Levered)-$663.0M-$663.0M-$1.6B-$1.0B-$9.2B$0.0M
Ending Cash Position$0.0M$0.0M-$2.1B-$1.6B-$36.2B-$7.8B
Valuation
Debt/EBITDA ratio0.110.110.190.120.360.00
EV/EBITDA Valuation-$2.6B-$2.6B-$5.0B-$3.3B-$13.5B$0.0M
P/E Valuation-$3.4B-$3.4B-$6.2B-$4.1B-$14.9B$0.0M
EV Erosion (DCF)-$0.7M-$0.3M
Blended TVaR-$3.0B-$3.0B-$5.6B-$3.7B-$14.2B$0.0M

Market Based Physical Risk

Enterprise value at risk from acute and chronic physical climate hazards

Market-Based Physical Value at Risk (PVaR)
Enterprise value at risk from acute and chronic physical hazards · company-level · Baseline scenario
2025 Total PVaR
$7.53M
NGFS Below 2°C
2030 Total PVaR
$11M
NGFS Below 2°C
2050 Total PVaR
$40M
NGFS Below 2°C
Total PVaR Trajectory
By scenario · USD millions

Asset Climate Hazard Analysis

Climate hazard exposure across 53 assets — average annual loss by peril and scenario

Current AAL (Baseline 1980)
$1.13M
RCP 4.5 AAL (2050)
$1.17M
RCP 8.5 AAL (2050)
$1.28M
Portfolio AAL Composition
Baseline + 2050 RCP 8.5 delta by hazard · USD / yr
BaselineRCP 8.5 Δ
Top Assets by Climate Δ AAL
2050 RCP 8.5 increase vs. baseline · USD / yr · top 5
AAL by Hazard Type
Portfolio total · click a pin to explore an asset
Asset value: $1.6B
How is Average Annual Loss (AAL) calculated?

AAL represents the expected financial loss from a physical hazard in any given year, averaged across all possible event intensities and their probabilities. It is derived from hazard models that combine historical climate data with forward-looking scenario projections, applied to each asset's location, construction type, and replacement value. Baseline AAL reflects current climate conditions; Scenario AAL incorporates projected shifts in hazard frequency and severity under each warming pathway.

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Asset Exposure Detail
AssetValueWildfire AALCyclone AALCoastal Flood AALRiver Flood AAL
BaselineRCP 4.5RCP 8.5BaselineRCP 4.5RCP 8.5BaselineRCP 4.5RCP 8.5BaselineRCP 4.5RCP 8.5
Bicaz Cement Plant$38M$401K$611K$626K
Heidelberg Logansport Cement Plant$16M$196K$60K$55K
Brevik Cement Plant$550M$3K$6K$8K$146K
Heidelberg Delta Cement Plant 2$15M$1K$9K$10K$104K$112K$121K$5K$8K$11K
Fieni Cement Plant$32M$76K$121K$128K
Beremend Cement Plant$18M$0K$0K$0K$49K$14K$8K
Colleferro Cement Plant$19M$30K$45K$59K
Chiscadaga Cement Plant$21M$27K$78K$91K$0K$0K$0K
Cagnano Amiterno Cement Plant$6.00M$16K$24K$31K
HeidelbergCement Bukhtarma Cement Plant$18M$11K$13K$12K
Helwan Cement Plant$102M$6K$7K$7K$3K$16K
Zuari Cement Sitapuram Cement Plant$17M$4K$3K$3K$1K$0K$0K$3K$4K$21K
Heidelberg Leeds Cement Plant$16M$8K$10K$10K$0K$0K
Zuari Cement Yerraguntla Cement Plant$69M$7K$7K$7K$1K$2K$1K
Guardiaregia Cement Plant$5.00M$7K$10K$13K
Couvrot Cement Plant$13M$6K$0K
Tura Cement Plant$51M$2K$2K$2K$2K$7K
Vac Cement Plant$10M$3K$5K$5K
Bussac Cement Plant$7.00M$3K$5K$6K$0K$0K
Beaucaire Cement Plant$9.00M$1K$3K$3K$1K$1K$1K
Matera Cement Plant$17M$2K$2K$3K
Samatzai Cement Plant$12M$2K$2K$2K
Lengfurt Cement Plant$13M$0K$1K$2K$1K$1K$1K
Beffes Cement Plant$5.00M$0K$0K$0K$1K$1K$1K
HeidelbergCement Shymkentcement Plant$17M$1K$1K$1K
Rezzato-Mazzano Cement Plant$17M$0K$1K$1K
Lukala Cement Plant$5.00M$0K$1K$1K
Tavernola Bergamasca Cement Plant$8.00M$0K$1K$1K
Cairo Governorate Desert Cement Plant$19M$0K$0K$0K
Lixhe Cement Plant$19M$0K$0K$1K$0K$0K$0K
Antoing Cement Plant$10M$0K$0K$0K
Paderborn Cement Plant$5.00M$0K$0K$0K$0K$0K$0K
Hannover Cement Plant$9.00M$0K$0K$0K
Villiers-au-Bouin Cement Plant$5.00M$0K$0K$0K
Slantsevsky Cement Plant Tsesla$15M$0K$0K$0K
Heidelberg Geseke Cement Plant$11M$0K$0K$0K
Heidelberg Fleetwood Cement Plant$28M$0K$0K$0K
Calusco d'Adda Cement Plant$19M$0K$0K$0K
Suez Cement Attaka Plant$41M$0K$0K$0K
Ennigerloh Cement Plant$13M$0K$0K$0K
Heidelberg Nazareth Cement Plant$34M$0K$0K$0K$0K$0K$0K
Isola del femmine Cement Plant$11M$0K$0K$0K
HeidelbergCement CaspiCement Plant$10M$0K$0K$0K
Schelklingen Cement Plant$18M$0K$0K$0K
Heidelberg Mason City Cement Plant$10M$0K$0K$0K
Picton Cement Plant$10M$0K$0K
Edmonton Cement Plant$18M
Kjopsvik Cement Plant$6.00M
Heidelberg Mitchell Cement Plant$31M$1K$3K
Burglengenfeld Cement Plant$14M$0K$0K
Airvault Cement Plant$26M$0K
Heidelberg Union Bridge Cement Plant$36M$1K$2K
Ranville Cement Plant$6.00M$0K$0K$0K