Climate risk summary for Nippon Steel — Steel & Iron, Japan
Nippon Steel is Japan's largest steelmaker and one of the world's leading steel producers, supplying high-grade steel to automotive, construction, and infrastructure sectors. As an integrated blast-furnace operator, Nippon Steel faces significant transition risks from carbon pricing and the shift to low-carbon steelmaking, alongside physical climate risks to its coastal manufacturing facilities.
Greenhouse gas emissions across all scopes — current year and reduction trajectory
Emissions are modelled using machine learning models trained on reported emissions from 9,000+ public companies. Non-linear patterns are encoded into estimates using financial metrics as inputs.
Find out more here →Financial value at risk from transition and physical climate exposures
Financial impact of carbon pricing, regulatory costs, and market transition on company value
| Metric | 2025 Baseline | 2025 w/ Targets | 2030 Baseline | 2030 w/ Targets | 2050 Baseline | 2050 w/ Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | ||||||
| EBITDA | -$576.1M | -$576.1M | -$1.5B | -$1.4B | -$10.0B | -$1.2B |
| EBITDA Margin | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.1% | -0.0% |
| EBIT | -$576.1M | -$576.1M | -$1.5B | -$1.4B | -$10.0B | -$1.2B |
| Net Income | -$547.3M | -$547.3M | -$1.5B | -$1.3B | -$9.5B | -$1.2B |
| Net Income Margin | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.1% | -0.0% |
| Carbon Cost | ||||||
| Carbon Cost | $576.1M | $576.1M | $1.5B | $1.4B | $10.0B | $1.2B |
| Carbon Cost % Revenue | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carbon Cost Cash Outflow | $576.1M | $576.1M | $1.5B | $1.4B | $10.0B | $1.2B |
| NPV Carbon Costs | $32.5B | $16.6B | — | — | — | — |
| Balance Sheet & Credit | ||||||
| Total Assets | $0.0M | $0.0M | -$1.9B | -$1.8B | -$36.1B | -$13.2B |
| Total Debt | $0.0M | $0.0M | $0.0M | $0.0M | $0.0M | $0.0M |
| Total Equity | $0.0M | $0.0M | -$1.9B | -$1.8B | -$36.1B | -$13.2B |
| Retained Earnings | $0.0M | $0.0M | -$1.9B | -$1.8B | -$36.1B | -$13.2B |
| Debt / EBITDA | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| Interest Coverage | -0.69 | -0.69 | -1.83 | -1.68 | -11.97 | -1.48 |
| Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow (Levered) | -$547.3M | -$547.3M | -$1.5B | -$1.3B | -$9.5B | -$1.2B |
| Ending Cash Position | $0.0M | $0.0M | -$1.9B | -$1.8B | -$36.1B | -$13.2B |
| Valuation | ||||||
| Debt/EBITDA ratio | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| EV/EBITDA Valuation | -$1.1B | -$1.1B | -$2.5B | -$2.3B | -$7.4B | -$914.8M |
| P/E Valuation | -$1.4B | -$1.4B | -$2.9B | -$2.6B | -$7.9B | -$978.5M |
| EV Erosion (DCF) | -$0.3M | -$0.1M | — | — | — | — |
| Blended TVaR | -$1.2B | -$1.2B | -$2.7B | -$2.5B | -$7.6B | -$946.6M |
Enterprise value at risk from acute and chronic physical climate hazards
Climate hazard exposure across 26 assets — average annual loss by peril and scenario
AAL represents the expected financial loss from a physical hazard in any given year, averaged across all possible event intensities and their probabilities. It is derived from hazard models that combine historical climate data with forward-looking scenario projections, applied to each asset's location, construction type, and replacement value. Baseline AAL reflects current climate conditions; Scenario AAL incorporates projected shifts in hazard frequency and severity under each warming pathway.
Find out more here →| Asset | Value | Wildfire AAL | Cyclone AAL | Coastal Flood AAL | River Flood AAL | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | Baseline | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | Baseline | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | Baseline | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | ||
| Nippon Kyushu Works (Oita Area, Oita) steel plant | $5.0B | $16K | $14K | $21K | $49250K | $302884K | $335000K | — | — | — | $702K | $663K | $413K |
| Nippon Kyushu Works (Yawata Area, Tobata) steel plant | $1.5B | $0K | $0K | $0K | $9742K | $62837K | $100500K | $4628K | $9982K | $10247K | $69K | $431K | $105K |
| Nippon East Japan Works (Kimitsu) steel plant | $5.1B | $0K | $0K | $0K | $10106K | $115325K | $161837K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nippon East Japan Works (Kashima) steel plant | $3.8B | $0K | — | — | $9248K | $61211K | $85946K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nippon Kansai Works (Wakayama Area, Wakayama) steel plant | $1.3B | $97K | — | $0K | $2126K | $32472K | $54345K | — | — | — | $5235K | $4046K | $3230K |
| Oita Co-operative power plant | $530M | $2K | $2K | $2K | $5221K | $32106K | $35510K | — | — | — | $74K | $70K | $44K |
| Nippon Steel Oita Works power station | $260M | $1K | $1K | $1K | $2561K | $15750K | $17420K | — | — | — | $37K | $34K | $21K |
| Clairton Works | $1.6B | — | — | — | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | $2475K | $4590K | $5000K |
| Nippon Steel (NSC) Kashima Works power station | $930M | $0K | — | — | $2263K | $14981K | $21034K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kimitsu power station | $1.0B | $0K | $0K | $0K | $1982K | $22613K | $31733K | $83K | $1091K | $1646K | — | — | — |
| Kashima Kyodo power station | $800M | $0K | — | — | $1947K | $12887K | $18094K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nippon Setouchi Works (Hirohata Area) steel plant | $1.2B | $18K | — | $0K | $1515K | $20034K | $33785K | — | — | — | $22K | $101K | $18K |
| Mon Valley Works | $2.3B | — | — | — | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | $1333K | $2226K | $2417K |
| Nippon Setouchi Works (Kure Area) steel plant | $300M | $0K | — | — | $627K | $5370K | $8069K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nippon Nagoya steel plant | $3.0B | $0K | $0K | $0K | $428K | $11862K | $14871K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wakayama Joint power station | $240M | $19K | — | $0K | $408K | $6235K | $10434K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hirohata Works power station | $260M | $4K | — | $0K | $328K | $4341K | $7320K | — | — | — | $5K | $22K | $4K |
| Toyohashi Akemi power station | $20M | $1K | $0K | $1K | $39K | $323K | $489K | $246K | $303K | $353K | $7K | $5K | $3K |
| Tokai Kyodo power station | $120M | $0K | $0K | $0K | $17K | $474K | $595K | $207K | $342K | $363K | — | — | — |
| Nippon Steel Kitakyushu Cement Plant | $30M | $0K | $0K | $0K | $195K | $1257K | $2010K | — | $1K | $5K | $1K | $9K | $2K |
| Kamaishi Works power station | $150M | — | — | — | $27K | $96K | $77K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| U.S. Steel Kosice Works power station | $340M | $5K | $9K | $21K | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| North Nippon Muroran Works steel plant | $800M | — | — | — | $0K | $1K | $1K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| NSC Muroran Works power station | $240M | — | — | — | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nippon Steel Muroran Cement Plant | $35M | — | — | — | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gary Works | $4.8B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |