Climate risk summary for Origin Energy — Electric Utilities, Australia
Origin Energy is one of Australia's largest integrated energy companies, operating across electricity generation, natural gas production, and energy retailing with approximately 4.5 million customer accounts. As Australia's energy market transitions toward renewables, Origin faces significant transition risks from decarbonisation policy and physical climate risks to its generation assets and gas infrastructure across the country.
Greenhouse gas emissions across all scopes — current year and reduction trajectory
Emissions are modelled using machine learning models trained on reported emissions from 9,000+ public companies. Non-linear patterns are encoded into estimates using financial metrics as inputs.
Find out more here →Financial value at risk from transition and physical climate exposures
Financial impact of carbon pricing, regulatory costs, and market transition on company value
| Metric | 2025 Baseline | 2025 w/ Targets | 2030 Baseline | 2030 w/ Targets | 2050 Baseline | 2050 w/ Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | ||||||
| EBITDA | -$198.9M | -$198.9M | -$550.7M | -$280.9M | -$5.1B | $0.0M |
| EBITDA Margin | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.5% | 0.0% |
| EBIT | -$198.9M | -$198.9M | -$550.7M | -$280.9M | -$5.1B | $0.0M |
| Net Income | -$171.6M | -$171.6M | -$475.2M | -$242.4M | -$4.6B | $0.0M |
| Net Income Margin | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.4% | 0.0% |
| Carbon Cost | ||||||
| Carbon Cost | $198.9M | $198.9M | $550.7M | $280.9M | $5.1B | $0.0M |
| Carbon Cost % Revenue | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Carbon Cost Cash Outflow | $198.9M | $198.9M | $550.7M | $280.9M | $5.1B | $0.0M |
| NPV Carbon Costs | $14.3B | $3.1B | — | — | — | — |
| Balance Sheet & Credit | ||||||
| Total Assets | $0.0M | $0.0M | -$615.3M | -$406.6M | -$18.9B | -$1.7B |
| Total Debt | $0.0M | $0.0M | $0.0M | $0.0M | $0.0M | $0.0M |
| Total Equity | $0.0M | $0.0M | -$615.3M | -$406.6M | -$18.9B | -$1.7B |
| Retained Earnings | $0.0M | $0.0M | -$615.3M | -$406.6M | -$18.9B | -$1.7B |
| Debt / EBITDA | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.07 | -3.32 | 0.00 |
| Interest Coverage | -1.27 | -1.27 | -3.53 | -1.80 | -32.37 | 0.00 |
| Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow (Levered) | -$171.6M | -$171.6M | -$475.2M | -$242.4M | -$4.4B | $0.0M |
| Ending Cash Position | $0.0M | $0.0M | -$615.3M | -$406.6M | -$18.9B | -$1.7B |
| Valuation | ||||||
| Debt/EBITDA ratio | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.07 | -3.32 | 0.00 |
| EV/EBITDA Valuation | -$723.8M | -$723.8M | -$2.0B | -$1.0B | -$13.7B | $0.0M |
| P/E Valuation | -$828.9M | -$828.9M | -$2.3B | -$1.2B | -$13.7B | $0.0M |
| EV Erosion (DCF) | -$0.7M | -$0.1M | — | — | — | — |
| Blended TVaR | -$776.4M | -$776.4M | -$2.1B | -$1.1B | -$13.7B | $0.0M |
Enterprise value at risk from acute and chronic physical climate hazards
Climate hazard exposure across 10 assets — average annual loss by peril and scenario
AAL represents the expected financial loss from a physical hazard in any given year, averaged across all possible event intensities and their probabilities. It is derived from hazard models that combine historical climate data with forward-looking scenario projections, applied to each asset's location, construction type, and replacement value. Baseline AAL reflects current climate conditions; Scenario AAL incorporates projected shifts in hazard frequency and severity under each warming pathway.
Find out more here →| Asset | Value | Wildfire AAL | Cyclone AAL | Coastal Flood AAL | River Flood AAL | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | Baseline | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | Baseline | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | Baseline | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | ||
| Darling Downs power station | $562M | $6380K | $7311K | $6815K | — | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eraring power station | $630M | $5317K | $6570K | $5588K | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bendeela (Shoalhaven Scheme) | $360M | $3765K | $4778K | $3956K | — | — | — | — | — | — | $2K | $1K | — |
| Mt Stuart power station | $146M | $315K | $338K | $309K | $378K | $787K | $1349K | — | — | — | $15K | $118K | $245K |
| Osborne power station | $175M | $196K | $262K | $261K | — | — | — | — | — | — | $248K | $0K | — |
| Quarantine power station | $148M | $166K | $222K | $221K | — | — | — | — | — | — | $209K | $0K | — |
| Cullerin Range Wind Farm | $52M | $234K | $377K | $295K | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Uranquinty power station | $504M | $53K | $82K | $68K | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mortlake power station | $461M | $50K | $55K | $56K | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wonthaggi Wind Farm | $15M | $0K | $0K | $0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |